Wk38 MacroTechnicals - FOMC Prep (Free)
Tactical trading plans around FOMC
Tactical trading plans around FOMC
Energy pushes to new high while VIX makes ytd-lows
Warsh took AI disinflation off the table, said economy at full employment, put emphasis on inflation breadth and price stability being the predominant focus. This is a hike signal...
Failed Bessentvention, ATH crack spreads, Elevated inflation risks, Debasement skepticism
Messy thematic signals - easing macro regimes and low VIX clashes with rising commodity prices
Rates calmer but term premium higher, risk sentiment strong but overly complacent?
Long-end tantrum may be done for now
Risk view stays bearish: tighter liquidity conditions ongoing AI concerns, weak equity leadership, vol expansion,
US–Iran escalation. AI competition.
Meaningful risk of bearish regime-shift
Tension between tighter liquidity and positive sentiment continues...
Quarter-end review and just more of the same risks - AI capex and model commoditisation, strong growth and inflation, and tigher fincon